The Changing Nature of Warfare

Jim Brooks is a well-regarded geopolitical analyst and commentator on military affairs. He recently wrote about the massive changes going on in Ukraine and Russia. I am picking selected quotes from his article.

(For fun, here is the AI-generated image for that article.)

Source: The New York Sun

“Offering a glimpse of the future of warfare, the IT leader who gave Ukraine its ‘Army of Drones’ in 2022 now plans to build Ukraine’s ‘Army of Robots.’

“Technological warfare does not stand still. We need the next breakthrough,” Mikhaylo Fedorov posts about his new project. “Our bet is on the robotization of warfare. The mission of the Army of Robots is to save lives.”

Mr. Fedorov has a track record. Last February, as Ukraine’s Defense Minister, he persuaded Elon Musk to cut off Russian use of Starlink. This month, he persuaded American tech billionaire Alex Karp to become the first investor in his new defense technology company.

Setting markers, Mr. Fedorov told tech leaders at a conference in Lviv last weekend that his goal is for a humanoid robot to kill the first Russian soldier in six months. He set a one-year deadline for the first robot assault on an enemy position with no infantry involved.

“Make robots fight instead of people,” he said.... “Robots should do the most dangerous work so our service members can come home.”

Robots are changing the way wars are being fought. Drones obviously. Russia and Ukraine just had their first “sea battle” between naval ship drones (Ukraine won). Helicopters are no longer needed for medevac as drones drive to the injured party and bring them to hospitals.

“On the battlefield, Ukraine’s tech advances are making some military specialties go the way of the horse-mounted cavalry. From this 4.5-year long war, Ukrainian snipers account for three of the five longest confirmed kills in the world. But now, Ukrainian snipers are shifting into drone work. A 2.5-mile shot can’t compete with an all-seeing drone roaming over miles of front lines. Ukrainian officers estimate that the life span of a Russian soldier who ventures into the 30-mile wide ‘kill zone’ is 20 to 30 minutes.”

Drones are now doing the incredibly dangerous work of clearing out landmines, which stopped the 2023 Ukrainian offensive in its tracks. 50,000 drone missions were carried out by the first half of this year.

Russia and Putin are not sitting still. “President Putin’s response is to throw money as well as men at the problem. Russian government spending on the military is to jump by 27 percent, to $203 billion next year, Reuters reports, citing Russian budget documents. Next year, Russia plans to spend $12 billion on production of jet-powered drones and loitering munitions, President Zelensky said Saturday in his nightly address to the nation. “In September, the Russians launched more than 2,730 jet-powered “shaheds,” he added, referring to a Russian version of an Iranian design.”

Like much military technology, this will have implications for commercial robots. Elon Musk’s and others’ vision of the world on millions of personal humanoid robots is being pushed into reality by what is happening in Ukraine and Russia. US manufacturers are learning and working in tandem with Ukrainian forces
from https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/economic-desiderata